Expensive gasoline, petroleum and finance :" Increases in fuel
decided by some oil companies continue to be discussed. Today we are on the price of the green conuigliato between 1.57 and 1.58 euro per liter. In the South, three days ago, unleaded gasoline has reached peaks of 1.611 € per liter. Fluctuations inj cents these days must counter the swing of Gaddafi over the first awards to the insurgents as now that Sarkozy, the uncertainty of the international military actions, reports of increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia for a possible increase in OPEC production. WTI crude on the square between the U.S. and London Brent up $ 12 on the gap continues unam finio to 14 at times of maximum tension. But who is more guilty of expensive gasoline? Gaddafi? Speculation? State taxes? The oil? To understand how is the price at the pump - a classic that you must always repeat, forgive me that the insiders know it - and its consequences on the economy, we start from this point. For Italy, which has a dependency on its total energy consumption by 85% mainly made of oil and gas, the impact is greater and more rapid in its effects than for the average of other advanced countries. In most reports on the consequences the rise in oil prices on growth, the threshold for "recession" for the advanced countries, if there were to stabilize prices for a quarter or two at least, is estimated at 135-140 dollars. For our country, accumulated from 17-18 U.S. dollars a barrel in a few weeks, if they were to be stabilized in the case of Libya's continuing crisis, already led to a worsening balance of payments on an annual basis 0.4% of GDP, and less increase of up to one third of a point. When you add up the two figures, one arrives at 0.7% of GDP mentioned by Confindustria today. Because our growth is lower than the American and German - Berlin raised from 2 to 2.5% growth expected in 2011 after more than 3.6% of 2010 - it is obvious that we are more exposed to negative consequences. A little 'patience in the most need instead to see what he does regularly enrage consumers, convinced that the rapid price increases at the pump are in fact proof of the proverbial expression and greed of the companies. In fact, even if it is not to say, from experience, it is easily accused of being servants of the oil.
The final price of fuel is the sum of three components. The first is a listing of automotive products for "finished", that is fine, a price that is formed on a platform private, PLATTS, on which freely intersects the supply and demand, and that in turn is also sottopiattaforme separate geographical areas. Ours is the European Mediterranean. Obviously, the price PLATTS has a major impact changes in the cost of a barrel, and therefore also in our case the exchange rate between euro and dollar, which now sees the European currency disadvantage because it is weak compared to the peak of its oil price the dollar in the days of $ 147 per barrel in 2008. 
Except that in this mechanism of free formation of prices of industrial fuels not only weighs the estimated demand and supply: in fact, the total range of supply Libyan pumping at full market barely exceeds 2.3% of total daily supply on world markets. It 'obvious that to rise to $ 20 over in a few weeks reckon the alarm on the possible expansion of the crisis from the Maghreb to the Gulf monarchies, large extractors. But alongside these dynamics "concrete" is also pure finance. Indeed, there are also two different levels of an equity investment by non-commercial sector, which usually is used to define those "speculators": hedge funds, funds specializing in raw materials, arbitrageurs around the world, financial desk of the Bank of 'business and trade, brokers and traders who pool capital threshold to bet not too low - a few million - with puts and calls, that price thresholds of entry and exit from the market, which may last from a few hours a night. As with any price, you can bet and win with these mechanisms is very short on the different markets - U.S. and UK - which make up the prices of crude oil. Is, concurrently, on different forms in which sottopiattaforme PLATTS - among others - even the industrial price of refined products. After the hottest tips of the financial crisis that followed the record of the barrel in 2008, the amount of "bets" non-commercial operating on two different levels was strongly decreased. We had passed peaks up to 400 billion dollars during the hot pre-peak at 147-148 dollars, a few tens of billion in the second and third quarter last year.
It 'obvious that the recovery in prices, advancing in 2010, most volatility has taken to attract a growing mass of liquidity. "Our" PLATTS is obvious that focus, given that Libya is in the Mediterranean. So we're back to average $ 300 billion or more, between "above" the barrel swap markets, and "below" to swap those for refined products. It 'clear that these are phenomena that are pushing up prices for industrial use. And are happy with the Fed. With its massive buying on the market to support public and private debt, the U.S. monetary authorities to create monetary base - no more sterilized by the banking system as it does in Europe - now becomes the money markets: the huge liquidity takes the path of posts more profitable in the short, speculative ones, and commodities markets together through treaties dollars contribute to "spread" U.S. inflation in the rest of the world. Thing that the U.S. can not but give pleasure decreases as the real value of their debts.
This long explanation to say that it has a point, who says that in addition to Libyan and North African affair there is "also" a financial responsibility - I do not like the term speculation - in the formation of the price of gasoline. Lift the edges to participate in these markets - which is to provide the highest placed to sit at the table, and proportionate to what you bet - is the classic promise that has been repeated for years but did not decide anything, because those who enact this alone would lose customers.
Mind you, to get to the final price must be added to the price PLATTS - which weighs more or less 35% - 10% of gross profit to the Italian oil companies that refine, transport, and distribution of insurance premium to the operators, as well as a 55% of the sum of excise duties and VAT. And even here there is some flaw. Because our 55% cost of gasoline taxes is huge, but it is less than 58%, average dell'euroarea 17 countries, as France and the 58.4% to 61.3% in Germany. Yet both the average of the euro countries, in France and Germany to pump gasoline costs less. Not only because the PLATTS for them is lower, because they are less dependent on foreign to us, but also because in Italy we still have a fuel distribution system is inefficient, expensive and too scattered on the ground, that politics can never touch it, fearful of the reactions of the class. And so, between Gaddafi and speculation, taxes, inefficient distribution, we are always at the end to pay us. But the oilmen in the series, marginal gain much more when prices are going down that when they come, as has often dimstrato numbers to hand our unparalleled carlo tinkers "
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